Economic Survey 2020

Abstract

Performance of Kenya’s economy in 2020, like most economies all over the world, will largely be determined by how long life and economic activities are going to be disrupted by the Coronavirus disease (Covid-19). Most of the economic activities have so far been slowed down by restrictions resulting from containment and cessation of sections of the population, the nationwide curfew and stoppage of international passenger travel. The first case of Covid-19 in the country was confirmed on the 12th March 2020 and a raft of precautionary and preventives measures have increasingly been implemented to counter the impact of pandemic on the population as well as socioeconomic aspects. Weak global economy is also likely to negatively impact on Kenya’s exports, more so horticultural products and the tourism sector. The global economy was projected to remain suppressed in 2020 due to slowdown in industrial output, weak business confidence and increased trade tensions, even before the rapid spread of the Coronavirus disease into a worldwide pandemic. The onset of the long rains was timely during the first quarter of 2020 while the rains were well spread across the country. Weather forecast points to a possibility of near normal long rains in most parts of the country while most of key agricultural zones are expected to receive slightly above normal rainfall in 2020. However, growth of the horticulture sub-sector is expected to be constrained by impacts of the covid-19; primarily suppressed external demand and increased costs of production arising from operational challenges. Earlier in the year, the country experienced invasion of the desert locusts, mostly in the arid and semi-arid areas, but the government has so far managed to mitigate their negative impact on the economy particularly in the agriculture sector.